Most (all?) of what National Geographic stated in their Sep 2004 issue, never came to pass:
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1. "The famed snows of Kilimanjaro have melted more than 80% since 1912." P.14
2. "... researchers believe that most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could virtually disappear by 2035." P.14
3. "... raising average global sea level between four and eight inches in the past hundred years." P.19
4. "But the recent rate of global sea level rise has departed from the average rate of the past two to three thousand years and is rising much more rapidly - a continuation or acceleration of that trend has the potential to cause striking changes..." P.19
5. "Even relatively small storm surges in the past two decades have overwhelmed the system of dikes, levees and pump stations ... upgraded in the 1990s to forestall the Gulf of Mexico's relentless creep." P.19
6. "Vulnerable to sea-level rise, Tuvalu, a small country in the South Pacific, has already begun formulating evacuation plans." P.19
7. "The scenarios are disturbing even in wealthy countries like the Netherlands, with nearly half its landmass already at or below sea level." P.19
8. "The 20th Century has seen the greatest warming in at least a thousand years, and natural forces can't account for it all." P.20
9. "Both greenhouse gases and temperature are expected to continue rising." P.20
10. "Thick smoke towers over a forest near Fairbanks, one more sign that Alaska is getting hotter.... Computer models predict that CO2-induced warming could eventually raise the incidence of fires by more than a half." P.25
11. "If the West Antarctic ice sheet were to break up, which scientists consider very unlikely this century, it alone contains enough ice to raise sea level by nearly 20 feet." P.27
12. "Ocean temperatures are rising in all ocean basins and at much deeper depths than previously thought (NOAA)" P.27
13. "Oceans are important sinks .... and take up about a third of human-generated CO2." P.28
14. " ... three greenhouse gases ... orchestrating an intricate dance between the radiation of heat from Earth back to space (cooling the planet) and the absorption of radiation in the atmosphere (trapping it near the surface and this warming the planet)." P.29
15. (At Barrow) "There are no words, though, to describe how much and how fast the ice is changing." P.33
16. "Researchers long ago predicted that the most visible impacts from a globally warmer world would occur first at high latitudes: rising air and sea temperatures, earlier snowmelt, later ice freeze-up, reductions in sea ice, thawing permafrost, more erosion, increases in storm intensity. Now, all these impacts have been documented in Alaska." P.33
17. "The Fleishmann's glass frog is barely hanging on .... As Earth's temperatures rise, scientists are exploring climate's role in a worldwide amphibian decline." P.34
18. "Alpine plants are edging uphill and beginning to overrun rare species near mountain summits." P.41
19. "This is the first instance in which humans appear to be accelerating the change, and warming could take place so quickly that species will not have the time to adapt and avoid extinction." P.41
20. "At some point, as temperatures continue to rise, species will have no more room to run". P.41
21. "Coral necropolis .... Increasingly the planet's coral is in hot water, parboiled in periods of calm, sunny weather ... In 1998 the world's coral suffered its worst year on record, which left 16% bleached or dead." P.41
22. Re: turtle breeding "Storms amplify the trend (to more females) shearing away trees that provide cooling shade to nests on beaches. ‘Severe weather events ... really knock the socks off in favour of the females'." P.47
23. "A warming world will harm some - and benefit others. Home heating costs will likely fall in New England ... The prospects are grim for drought-plagued Ethiopian children, who could see rainfall decline by 10 percent over the next 50 years. Widespread poverty and dependence on subsistence agriculture make Africans the most vulnerable to climate change." P.73.
There are a couple of boxed headers along the way. Two are
24. "IT'S NOT A BELIEF SYSTEM; IT'S AN OBSERVABLE SCIENTIFIC FACT." P.33.
25. Then "WE'LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE ACTUAL CHANGES IN 30 YEARS. BUT IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY DIFFERENT WORLD."
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New information shows that:
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1. Mt Kilimanjaro remains almost always below freezing on top. The depleting rainforests at its base is the reason for less precipitation ie. snow.
2. A recent study shows that Himalayan glaciers have not retreated much at all.
3. Sea level rise has been consistent at about 6-7 inches per century.
4. Sea level rise has been consistent at about 6-7 inches per century.
5. Sea level rise has been consistent at about 6-7 inches per century, even in the gulf of Mexico - plus, trend is fewer hurricanes overall. Also, failure of pumps and bad flood planning has nothing to do with global warming.
6. Sea level rise has been consistent at about 6-7 inches per century. Also, islands are not suffering as predicted.
7. The Netherlands haven't had a problem with sea level rise in the last 10 years.
8. No warming globally for the last 17 years 10 months even with the adjustments in temperature data.
9. CO2 is expected to rise - temperature, not so sure.
10. Forest fires have decreased overall, fire has nothing to do with global warming, but more to do with forest management. Alaska has also not become hotter since 2004.
11. If it were to melt, but there are no signs that the east Antarctic ice sheet is about to melt.
12. There is no actual reliable data about deep ocean temperature rise, mostly only models and hopeful claims about ocean heating. 'Ocean heating' is smoke and mirrors. No physical mechanism has ever been given to explain it. Flesh one of these ideas out more, and I might believe you. Oceans cool simply by evaporating more water on the surface, so why would more 'trapped IR' (which only heats the surface where evaporation occurs) cause deep ocean heating?? Claims that any supposed 'ocean heating' will come back to 'haunt us' are unfounded and premature.
13. NA. No physical mechanism for this has ever been given, so it is not an argument for, or against, anything, yet. See here.
14. Climate sensitivity is not as great as predicted.
15. Ice is changing at Barrow - it is changing everywhere - sometimes increasing, sometimes decreasing - ice coverage seems to be balancing out globally. See here.
16. They forgot to mention Hubbard glacier (the largest tidewater glacier in North America) is advancing - increasing. Columbia glacier is small compared to Hubbard. Himalayan glaciers are also stable.
18. (No comment, as I don't know much about this).
19. No global warming for 17 years and 10 months. Species are adapting very well to any changes. Greater changes have been seen in the past with no great extinction event.
20. No global warming for 17 years and 10 months, so this statement doesn't have much meaning.
21. Coral is in peril because of parrot fish, etc.
22. Sea turtles are being protected and released in greater numbers to the sea (by humans) than ever before.
23. Widespread poverty and heating problems are being caused by the artificial & much greater increase in energy costs worldwide.
24. Global warming (climate change) has become a belief system due to people blindly accepting a 'consensus'. The 'climate scientists' are seen as the new 'priests'.
25. 10 years have passed already, and not much has changed...
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/31/national-geographics-warming-warning-10-years-later/
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